‘War and Peace’ or ‘Democracy and Dictatorship’

Opinion article by Robin Summers

The people of Taiwan faced a choice during the 2024 presidential election. Against the backdrop of China’s growing hegemony and intentions to assimilate Taiwan, the Kuomintang (KMT) and rival Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presented two different messages during the election campaigns: vote for the DPP to choose democracy, or vote for the KMT for peace with China.

This dilemma resonates with the people of Myanmar, who have been fighting against military dictatorship in pursuit of a federal democracy since the attempted coup in 2021.

The coup sparked nationwide protests and armed resistance, leading to devastating consequences. The military regime is now attempting to frame its narrative of the coup using “stability and peace” as a justification to impose its limited, sham elections.

After four years of public opposition, losing control of over 90 towns to resistance groups, the military is promoting elections as a pathway to peace. It has organized so-called peace forums with cooperating political parties and ethnic armed organizations that are currently not fighting.

At the same time, the junta is trying to convince ASEAN and neighboring powers like China, India and Thailand that new elections will restore stability.

But military-organized elections will bring neither democracy nor peace to the people of Myanmar. Here’s why:

Democratic parties that won overwhelming public support in past elections will not participate in the new elections. Only a losers’ block of pro-military and proxy parties that gained less than 11% of the total votes in 2020 and which are also responsible for the coup are intending to contest the new military-organized elections.

All signs point to an election model resembling the tightly controlled 2010 vote—but even more restrictive.

Contrary to what some analysts claim, these elections will not diminish Min Aung Hlaing’s power, nor will they expand civil or democratic rights.

The elections will be held under the undemocratic military-drafted 2008 Constitution, which entrenches military control over politics and fails to protect against future coups. Furthermore, the military has already shown it is happy to disregard it when necessary: the 2021 coup was in fact flagrantly illegal according to the constitution.

Even so, the constitution grants immunity for the military’s human rights violations and war crimes, particularly during a state of emergency (Section 432). Under this system, and with the military in control, elections cannot bring justice or accountability required to build a sustainable peace.

While the military and its supporters portray these elections as a turning point for conflict transformation, it’s crucial to remember: elections can also spark conflict.

Elections held in Kachin and Rakhine states in 2015 and 2020 did not prevent continued war between the military and Kachin Independence Army or Arakan Army. The post-coup conflict itself stemmed from the military’s baseless accusations of electoral fraud—even though the 2020 elections were widely considered free and fair.

Elsewhere in the region, the peace process in Mindanao in the Philippines, which reduced conflict by 50% by 2024, began with a peace agreement. This paved the way for the Moro Islamic Liberation Front to govern Bangsamoro autonomous region and disarm, with elections planned as the final stage.

In contrast, there has been no compromise or acknowledgment by the military of the opposition’s demands despite Min Aung Hlaing’s calls for opposition groups to participate in elections —essential prerequisites for any sincere peace process.

There are no concrete plans for power-sharing, disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration, or security sector reform.

Without these foundations, peace talks are merely empty gestures.

Without genuine negotiations with both civil and armed opposition groups, these elections will not bring stability or peace.

Instead, they risk legitimizing the military’s false claims of electoral fraud and undermining the revolution against military rule. Far from ending the conflict, these sham elections will only entrench dictatorship and prolong war.

Pic: Bangkok IDP camp in Pekon township after the fourth military airstrike. / Robin Summers